Detroit's Galarraga baffles Indians again
Baseball Betting Lines
08/20/2010 -
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Armando Galarraga continued his mastery of the
Indians with seven shutout innings, and the Detroit Tigers shut out Cleveland,
6-0, in the opener of a three-game set at Comerica Park.
Galarraga (4-5), whose last appearance against Cleveland resulted in what
should have been a perfect game, allowed just three hits and struck out eight
without walking a batter. Back on June 2, Galarraga tossed his first career
shutout, retiring the first 26 batters of the game before umpire Jim Joyce
botched a call at first base that would have resulted in the third perfect
game of the season.
Instead, he settled for a one-hitter, and Galarraga stretched his scoreless
innings streak against the Indians this season to 16. He has given up at least
one run in every start this season except both games against Cleveland.
Don Kelly recorded a career-high four hits to go with two runs scored and an
RBI for Detroit, which snapped a three-game losing streak and a four-game skid
to the Indians. Brandon Inge fell a homer shy of the cycle, while Will Rhymes,
Austin Jackson and Miguel Cabrera each recorded a multi-hit game.
Jayson Nix doubled for the Indians to break up a no-hitter in the fifth, as
the Indians fell for the ninth time in 12 games. Justin Masterson (4-12)
continued to struggle, giving up five runs on 11 hits and a walk in six
frames.
The Tigers wasted no time building a lead, scoring twice in the first.
Jackson led off the inning with a single, stole second and advanced to third
on a Rhymes bunt single. Jackson was able to score on the play when catcher
Lou Marson threw the ball away, which also let Rhymes reach second.
Rhymes went to third on a groundout and scored on Cabrera's base hit for a 2-0
lead.
Gerald Laird and Jackson each hit an RBI single in the second to double the
lead to four. Rhymes' run-scoring single in the fourth made it a 5-0 contest.
Meanwhile, Galarraga dominated. He retired the first 14 Indians batters of the
game before Nix hit a double to left just past the outstretched glove of
Kelly.
Galarraga allowed just two more hits in his seven innings of work, and Ryan
Perry followed with a perfect eighth. Kelly's RBI double in the eighth
accounted for the final margin, and Phil Coke polished off the win with a
scoreless ninth.
Game Notes
The Tigers had an eight-game homer streak snapped. They also had a streak of
seven games with multiple home runs stopped...Detroit is 13-2 in its last 15
home games against the Indians...The Tigers lead the season series,
7-6...Former Indians infielder Jhonny Peralta faced his old team for the first
time and went 0-for-4...The Tigers went 8-for-20 with runners in scoring
position, while the Indians went 0-for-1.
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Tom Leh
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
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What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
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A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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