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Characteristics of a Kentucky Derby WinnerHorseracing Betting Lines01/23/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the longest time, thoroughbreds raced four, five, even six times in their three-year-old season prior to the Kentucky Derby. The norm these days is just two or three with the races spaced out a month at a time. In fact, the last five Derby winners hit the track just twice in their three- year-old campaign before the first Saturday in May. In 2007, Street Sense opened up his season with a nose victory over Any Given Saturday in the Mar. 17 Tampa Bay Derby and then finished second in the Blue Grass four weeks later. The next year, Big Brown picked up back-to-back victories at Gulfstream Park in March before taking home the roses. Mine That Bird parlayed a pair of losses at Sunland Park in late February and March to win the Derby in 2009. Two years ago, Super Saver won on the slop at Churchill Downs after losing the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby in March and April, respectively. Last year, the lightly raced Animal Kingdom prevailed off two preps - an entry-level allowance loss on Mar. 3 followed by a win in the Spiral on Mar. 26. As one can see, it doesn't really matter if the horses win or not prior to the Kentucky Derby. The key is to have enough graded earnings before the beginning of May to guarantee a spot in the Run for the Roses. This year, a few of the key contenders will have only two three-year-old prep races, so for those folks who like to wager on trends, keep the names Union Rags, Sabercat, and maybe Dullahan in mind. Another key attribute for a Kentucky Derby winner is a victory or a close second in a 1 1/8-mile race. Animal Kingdom (2011), Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001), and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) all won going nine-furlongs. Super Saver (second by a neck in 2010), Street Sense (second by a nose in 2007), and Funny Cide (second by one half-length in 2003) all just missed winning at 1 1/8-miles prior to the Derby. The only two years since 2000 this trend has not held true were 2005 and 2009 when Giacomo and Mine That Bird, respectively, crossed the wire first at 50-1. Giacomo at least had a pair of nine-furlong attempts finishing third, beaten 1 1/4-lengths as the 8-5 favorite in the Sham, and then running fourth, beaten by two in the Santa Anita Derby. Mine That Bird was 13-1 when he ran fourth, beaten 3 1/4-lengths in the Sunland Derby. It is imperative to finish first, second, third, or fourth, in the final prep race as the last horse to win the Derby finishing fifth or beyond was Iron Liege some 55 years ago. The most noticeable trend is the two-year-old jinx as Apollo in 1882 was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without a start at two. That means Todd Pletcher's Spring Hill Farm, who burst on the scene with a dazzling 6 1/4- length score in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14, will have a tough time catching up to his contemporaries in the coming months. THE IMPORTANCE OF A SOLID PEDIGREE With most of the Kentucky Derby entrants coming to Churchill Downs with fewer and fewer starts, a horses' pedigree is a vital way of narrowing down the field to a more manageable number. That is one reason why two-year-old champion Hansen is way down on my "Dirty Dozen" list. Despite all the early accomplishments, his breeding does not suggest success as the distances increase. Hansen's sire Tapit has produced a ton of solid runners, including Trappe Shot, Tapizar, and Stardom Bound, but not many have won past nine-furlongs. His dam side, going back a few generations, lacks any sort of stamina to make up for his distance-challenged sire line. Another top runner, Discreet Dancer, has all the talent to be one of this year's top milers but asking him to go another quarter-mile might be his undoing. The jury is out on his sire Discreet Cat as his first crop just turned three this year. Still, his dam, Pretty Discreet, won the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga and his sire, Forestry, sent out Shackleford who won last year's Preakness. Discreet Dancer comes from a top-notch female line. His second dam, Bering Cruise, is a half-sister to Love Me True, whose son Duke of Marmalade won multiple long-distance Group 1 races overseas. His third dam, Lassie's Lady, is a half-sister to Weekend Surprise, who produced A.P. Indy and Summer Squall. Nevertheless, Discreet Dancer's dam, West Side Dancer, has produced just one other foal, the four-year-old sprinter, Travelin Man. The odds are strong that Discreet Dancer has a better chance of stretching out his speed than his older half-brother, but winning graded races over a-mile-and-an-eighth is still a question mark. To that end, the top pedigrees on the 2012 Kentucky Derby trail belong to Sky Kingdom, Alpha, Russian Greek, Algorithms, and Casual Trick.
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NFL Football BettingBILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover. BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week. COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy. TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win. RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win. PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start. JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch. SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do. VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams. DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home. SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one. BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1. BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses. RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw. PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1. Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting. |
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